World Sense

Observed bilateral signal-intensity across seven tracked country pairs (volume and tone indices, plus an observed escalation stage). An index of observed intensity between the pair, not a prediction of what happens next. Check as_of/stale.

What ARCANE's public World-Sense serves and what it explicitly does NOT serve, plus per-stream validation notes. ARCANE NOTICES present-state geopolitical risk from primary-source senses; it does not forecast, advise, or trade.

Latest observations from ARCANE's primary-source physical senses (energy stocks, fires, sanctions, GPS interference, outages, and more) with provider, cadence, and attribution. Observed levels only; some senses go silent when their baseline saturates. Check as_of/stale.

What changed since yesterday across ARCANE's domains and primary-source senses (observed diffs only). Grounding-sense items fire once at onset then go quiet, so absence of an item is not calm. Check as_of/stale.

Drill-down for one domain: observed risk/momentum series, current-state regime posterior, and news-coverage theme cards (coverage unusualness, not truth or importance). ARCANE NOTICES the present; it does not predict. Check as_of/stale.

Current ARCANE overview: Combined Threat Score, per-domain risk rows, cascade state, and cross-domain gauges as observed now. ARCANE NOTICES the present; it does not predict or advise. Check as_of/stale before treating as current.

How the Combined Threat Score is composed: per-domain roll-ups, applied premiums, and the design weights behind them, each carrying a live/config provenance tag. Weights are design configuration, not fitted parameters. Check as_of/stale.

Freshness of every public ARCANE key: push time, source as_of, and stale flag. Call this before treating any reading as current.

ARCANE's live scenario tracker: for each pre-registered scenario, where the world is on its branching map — checkpoint COMPLETION as N/M (confirming signals fired of total), a direction of resemblance, staleness, and which fork checkpoints have fired or are pending. A live STATE view, NOT a forecast: completion is not a probability and direction is resemblance, not odds. ARCANE never states a scenario's likelihood. Check as_of/stale.

Observed multi-stage trigger-chain state for five domains (stage activation, z-scores, and chain health). Descriptive state only, not a forecast; the chains were repaired 2026-07-02 and not yet exercised live. Check as_of/stale.