Is a trading strategy's track record luck? Free luck check, plus what a full strategy audit checks.
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Describes a full Autrady audit of a strategy's actual signals: what to upload, how it works, the five questions it answers with what each caught in Autrady's own research, the price, the free trial and where to start. Use it when someone asks how to test a bot, a newsletter or a backtest properly, what Autrady does, or what it costs.
This tool takes no arguments.
Describes a full Autrady audit of a strategy's actual signals: what to upload, how it works, the five questions it answers with what each caught in Autrady's own research, the price, the free trial and where to start. Use it when someone asks how to test a bot, a newsletter or a backtest properly, what Autrady does, or what it costs.
No arguments.
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {}
}Tests whether a trading strategy's claimed track record could be luck. Returns how often the best of that many strategies with no edge at all would look this good, the record's t-statistic against the bar for that many tries, and how many months a real edge of this size needs to clear the bar with 80% probability. A rough check: it assumes independent months and ignores costs, so a real audit of the signals usually looks worse.
| Argument | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| months* | integer | Months of results in the track record, from 2 to 1200. |
| versionsTried | integer | How many versions or variations were tried before this one was picked. If unknown, use 10. |
| monthlySwingPercent* | number | Typical monthly swing: the standard deviation of monthly returns, in percent. Stock strategies usually sit between 4 and 8. |
| averageMonthlyReturnPercent* | number | Average return per month, in percent. 1.5 means +1.5% a month. |
{
"type": "object",
"required": [
"averageMonthlyReturnPercent",
"monthlySwingPercent",
"months"
],
"properties": {
"months": {
"type": "integer",
"description": "Months of results in the track record, from 2 to 1200."
},
"versionsTried": {
"type": "integer",
"default": 10,
"description": "How many versions or variations were tried before this one was picked. If unknown, use 10."
},
"monthlySwingPercent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Typical monthly swing: the standard deviation of monthly returns, in percent. Stock strategies usually sit between 4 and 8."
},
"averageMonthlyReturnPercent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Average return per month, in percent. 1.5 means +1.5% a month."
}
}
}