The Durability Curve

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Essays, claim ledgers, weekly calls and laws, plus AI model release dates, prices and free plans.

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get_claim_ledger Read-only

Get the claim ledger for one essay: each load-bearing claim it makes, the source it was checked against, the quoted words, where in the source they appear, the date the source was read, and a status saying how the claim was checked. The response defines every status. Claims removed during checking are listed separately under "struck", with the reason; they are not claims the essay makes. Only some essays have a ledger: search results and get_essay link to one when it exists. These tools retrieve The Durability Curve's public material. They do not certify that any claim is true.

slugstring, required

The essay's site or Substack slug (case-insensitive), or its full durabilitycurve.com/blog/ or harryfloyd.substack.com/p/ URL.

Tools (4)

get_claim_ledger

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
slug*	string	The essay's site or Substack slug (case-insensitive), or its full durabilitycurve.com/blog/ or harryfloyd.substack.com/p/ URL.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "slug"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "slug": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 200,
      "description": "The essay's site or Substack slug (case-insensitive), or its full durabilitycurve.com/blog/ or harryfloyd.substack.com/p/ URL."
    }
  }
}

get_essay

Get the full public text of one Durability Curve essay as markdown. Its metadata carries the title, date and canonical field, and a link to the essay's claim ledger when it has one. For a paid essay only the free part is public, and the text says where it stops. When citing, link the canonical field in the response metadata. These tools retrieve The Durability Curve's public material. They do not certify that any claim is true.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
slug*	string	The essay's site or Substack slug (case-insensitive), or its full durabilitycurve.com/blog/ or harryfloyd.substack.com/p/ URL.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "slug"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "slug": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 200,
      "description": "The essay's site or Substack slug (case-insensitive), or its full durabilitycurve.com/blog/ or harryfloyd.substack.com/p/ URL."
    }
  }
}

get_weekly_calls

Get the calls printed in The Durability Curve Weekly: dated, checkable predictions, each with the confidence printed at the time and the date or event it resolves on. The wording is exactly as printed and never changes after publication. outcome is null until a call resolves. These tools retrieve The Durability Curve's public material. They do not certify that any claim is true.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
status	string	open, resolved or all (default).
resolves_before	string	YYYY-MM-DD. Only calls whose latest resolution date is before this day, earliest first. A call that resolves on an event "or" a date counts by that date.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "status": {
      "enum": [
        "open",
        "resolved",
        "all"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "default": "all",
      "description": "open, resolved or all (default)."
    },
    "resolves_before": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$",
      "description": "YYYY-MM-DD. Only calls whose latest resolution date is before this day, earliest first. A call that resolves on an event \"or\" a date counts by that date."
    }
  }
}

Search or list the public archive of The Durability Curve: essays on which kinds of work keep their value as AI gets cheaper, the checked claims in each essay's claim ledger, the dated calls printed in The Durability Curve Weekly, the five laws and two derived principles the essays are tested against, and the free tools. With a query, returns ranked matches, each with its kind (essay, claim, call, law or tool), a snippet and a URL (canonical for essay citations); "title_matched" says whether any essay title contains every word of the query. With an empty query, lists newest first, filtered by kind, series or has_ledger, and "total" counts every match. Read a match in full with get_essay, get_claim_ledger or get_weekly_calls. These tools retrieve The Durability Curve's public material. They do not certify that any claim is true.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
kind	string	Only this kind of result: essay, claim, call, law (the framework's laws and principles) or tool (the free tools). A list (empty query) defaults to essays.
sort	string	relevance (default for a query) or newest. A list is always newest first.
limit	integer	How many results to return, 1 to 25. Default 5.
query	string	What to look for, in plain words, e.g. "agent reliability", "memory chip deposits" or a call ID like "W02-5". Leave empty to LIST instead (newest first), with the filters below.
series	string	Only essays (and their claims) in this series, e.g. "The Blueprint". Case does not matter.