Crypto Markets Desk

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Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets, perps funding, liquidation math and bitcoin model edges.

Crypto & Web3 Finance & Payments

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calculate_ev Read-only

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

marketPricenumber

Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

yourProbabilitynumber

Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Tools (7)

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
marketPrice	number \| string	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	number \| string	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

commodity_edge

Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
tickers	array	Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).
commodity	any	Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "tickers": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "string"
      },
      "description": "Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge)."
    },
    "commodity": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "silver",
            "bitcoin",
            "gold",
            "oil"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil."
    }
  }
}

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
value	number \| string	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
format	any	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
    },
    "format": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."
    }
  }
}

fifteen_min_board

Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series — crypto, metals, energy, FX — with window status, YES price, close time, target price, what it settles on and the up rate over the last 96 windows, plus the same window on Polymarket (international) for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP with each venue's settlement index and a graded record of the two venues on the same Bitcoin windows, and our Bitcoin top-of-hour strategy (v2 — the version our bot trades live, with its live and paper record). Pass series ("eth", "KXBTC15M") or asset_class.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
limit	number \| string \| null	Max rows (default 30). Values above 40 are clamped to 40.
series	string	One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset ("eth", "gold", "euro").
open_only	boolean	Only series with a window open right now (default false).
asset_class	any	crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max rows (default 30). Values above 40 are clamped to 40."
    },
    "series": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset (\"eth\", \"gold\", \"euro\")."
    },
    "open_only": {
      "type": "boolean",
      "description": "Only series with a window open right now (default false)."
    },
    "asset_class": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "crypto",
            "commodity",
            "currency",
            "all"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all)."
    }
  }
}

kelly_size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
bankroll	number \| string	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
fraction	any	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
marketPrice*	number \| string	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
winProbability*	number \| string	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "bankroll": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\")."
    },
    "fraction": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth."
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "winProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

perp_liquidation

Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
side	any	Direction. One of: long · short.
asset	any	The perp. One of: btc · eth · sol · xrp · doge · hype · link · gold · silver · platinum · palladium.
entry	number \| string	Entry price (default: the live price). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
margin	number \| string	Margin in dollars (default 1000). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
leverage	number \| string	Leverage, e.g. 5 or "5x". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.
hold_days	number	Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "side": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "long",
            "short"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Direction. One of: long · short."
    },
    "asset": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "btc",
            "eth",
            "sol",
            "xrp",
            "doge",
            "hype",
            "link",
            "gold",
            "silver",
            "platinum",
            "palladium"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "The perp. One of: btc · eth · sol · xrp · doge · hype · link · gold · silver · platinum · palladium."
    },
    "entry": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Entry price (default: the live price). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
    },
    "margin": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Margin in dollars (default 1000). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
    },
    "leverage": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Leverage, e.g. 5 or \"5x\". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side."
    },
    "hold_days": {
      "type": "number",
      "default": 7,
      "maximum": 365,
      "minimum": 0,
      "description": "Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7)."
    }
  }
}

perps_board

Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
asset	string	One perp: symbol or name ("btc", "gold", "XAG").
limit	number \| string \| null	Max rows (default 25). Values above 30 are clamped to 30.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "asset": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 30,
      "description": "One perp: symbol or name (\"btc\", \"gold\", \"XAG\")."
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max rows (default 25). Values above 30 are clamped to 30."
    }
  }
}