NBA Markets Desk

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Kalshi NBA props and game lines vs DraftKings, FanDuel and Novig, plus who gains when a star sits.

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calculate_ev Read-only

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

marketPricenumber

Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

yourProbabilitynumber

Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Tools (7)

Tool list last changed Oct 25, 2026.

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
marketPrice	number \| string	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	number \| string	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
value	number \| string	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.
format	any	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format."
    },
    "format": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."
    }
  }
}

find_arbitrage

Use for "where is the arbitrage" and "Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps". Cross-venue gaps on the same NFL, NBA, NHL or MLB game: Kalshi against Polymarket US (the exchange US traders use, fees included), Polymarket international as a reference. Gap in pp, WATCH/ARB signal, cheaper venue, settlement_match; near misses when nothing clears. Free: the top 3 gaps in full; Pro returns the whole board.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
minGap	number \| string	Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold).

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "minGap": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold)."
    }
  }
}

kelly_size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
bankroll	number \| string	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.
fraction	any	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
marketPrice*	number \| string	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
winProbability*	number \| string	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "bankroll": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure."
    },
    "fraction": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth."
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "winProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

nba_game_board

Use for "Knicks moneyline on Kalshi vs the books" and "cheapest place for the Celtics spread tonight". Kalshi NBA moneyline, spread and total beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same line: the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, no model.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
game	string	Two teams, e.g. "BOS @ DET".
team	string	Team code or name (NYK, Knicks).
limit	number \| string \| null	Max games (default 5).
market	any	Optional market. One of: moneyline · spread · total.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "game": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 60,
      "description": "Two teams, e.g. \"BOS @ DET\"."
    },
    "team": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "Team code or name (NYK, Knicks)."
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max games (default 5)."
    },
    "market": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "moneyline",
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Optional market. One of: moneyline · spread · total."
    }
  }
}

nba_injury_impact

Use for "Embiid's out tonight — who benefits?" and "who's out in the NBA today". Today's NBA absences from the official injury report, and for each absent star the teammates whose minutes, points, rebounds, assists and usage rose in past games without him (last two seasons, sample size on every row), beside today's Kalshi prop prices. Questionable players fork into plays/sits branches until ruled. Historical splits only, no projection.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
game	string	Two teams, e.g. "BOS @ NYK".
stat	any	Stat to rank beneficiaries by (default points). One of: pts · reb · ast · min · usg · fg3m · stl · blk.
team	string	Team code or name (PHI, Sixers).
player	string	The absent player, or a teammate to look up (partial name).

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "game": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 60,
      "description": "Two teams, e.g. \"BOS @ NYK\"."
    },
    "stat": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "pts",
            "reb",
            "ast",
            "min",
            "usg",
            "fg3m",
            "stl",
            "blk"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Stat to rank beneficiaries by (default points). One of: pts · reb · ast · min · usg · fg3m · stl · blk."
    },
    "team": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "Team code or name (PHI, Sixers)."
    },
    "player": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 60,
      "description": "The absent player, or a teammate to look up (partial name)."
    }
  }
}

nba_prop_board

Use for "where is LeBron's points line cheapest tonight". Every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike (points, rebounds, assists, threes) beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same strike: the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, no model.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
game	string	Two teams, e.g. "BOS @ DET".
team	string	Team code or name (LAL, Lakers).
limit	number \| string \| null	Max rows (default 15).
player	string	Player name (partial).
statType	any	Optional stat. One of: pts · reb · ast · threes.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "game": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 60,
      "description": "Two teams, e.g. \"BOS @ DET\"."
    },
    "team": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "Team code or name (LAL, Lakers)."
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max rows (default 15)."
    },
    "player": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 60,
      "description": "Player name (partial)."
    },
    "statType": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "pts",
            "reb",
            "ast",
            "threes"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Optional stat. One of: pts · reb · ast · threes."
    }
  }
}