NHL Markets Desk

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NHL on Kalshi: tonight's games and goal scorers vs a model, plus Stanley Cup odds vs Polymarket.

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Tool list from our last check. Connect live to refresh it.

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

marketPricenumber

Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

yourProbabilitynumber

Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Tools (6)

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
marketPrice	number \| string	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	number \| string	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
value	number \| string	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
format	any	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
    },
    "format": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."
    }
  }
}

find_arbitrage

Use for "where is the arbitrage" and "Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps". Cross-venue gaps on the same sports contract (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) against Polymarket's international book: the gap in pp, the WATCH/ARB signal, the cheaper venue and whether both contracts settle the same way (settlement_match). Free: the top 3 gaps in full; Pro returns the whole board.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
minGap	number \| string	Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("3", "3pp", "3%").

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "minGap": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\")."
    }
  }
}

kelly_size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
bankroll	number \| string	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
fraction	any	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
marketPrice*	number \| string	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
winProbability*	number \| string	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "bankroll": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\")."
    },
    "fraction": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth."
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "winProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

nhl_edge

Use for "NHL predictions tonight" and "Stanley Cup odds". Tonight's NHL games on Kalshi — moneyline, puck line, totals, period markets — as Market · Model · Fair, starting goalies checked first. market=goals: anytime and first-goal contracts; market=futures: Cup, conference and division markets on Kalshi and Polymarket (international book) vs a 10,000-season sim. Free.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
team	string	Optional NHL club to filter — code (CAR, EDM, LAK), Kalshi code (LA, TB), nickname ("Oilers") or city ("Edmonton").
limit	number \| string \| null	Max rows (default 16). Values above 40 are clamped to 40.
market	any	game = tonight's board (moneyline, puck line, totals, periods); goals = player-goal contracts; futures = Stanley Cup + season markets. One of: game · goals · futures.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "team": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "Optional NHL club to filter — code (CAR, EDM, LAK), Kalshi code (LA, TB), nickname (\"Oilers\") or city (\"Edmonton\")."
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max rows (default 16). Values above 40 are clamped to 40."
    },
    "market": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "game",
            "goals",
            "futures"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "game = tonight's board (moneyline, puck line, totals, periods); goals = player-goal contracts; futures = Stanley Cup + season markets. One of: game · goals · futures."
    }
  }
}

track_record

Use for "how accurate is your model" and "what's your track record". Every graded PredictionMarketsPicks signal per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) and the daily editorial call (POTD): W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era, and the NFL model's backtest. WATCH calls are reported apart.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lane	string	Optional lane: bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, nhl, potd, nfl — or an engine slug. Omit for every lane.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "lane": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "Optional lane: bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, nhl, potd, nfl — or an engine slug. Omit for every lane."
    }
  }
}