Weather Markets Edge Desk

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Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

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base_rate_gap

Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

baseRateIdstring

Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.

marketPricenumber

Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

baseRateValuenumber

Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

Tools (7)

base_rate_gap

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Argument	Type	Description
baseRateId	any	Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.
marketPrice	number \| string	Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
baseRateValue	number	Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "baseRateId": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "incumbent_reelected",
            "fed_hold_unemp_below_4",
            "fed_cut_cpi_above_3",
            "recession_called_12mo",
            "sp500_positive_year",
            "bitcoin_above_100k_eoy",
            "gdp_growth_above_2",
            "cpi_above_3",
            "senate_incumbent_wins_primary",
            "vix_below_20_eoy",
            "interest_rate_cut_next_meeting",
            "major_sports_upset"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset."
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "baseRateValue": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 0,
      "description": "Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given."
    }
  }
}

bayes_update

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
prior	number \| string	Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
evidence	array	One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ "likelihoodIfTrue": 80, "likelihoodIfFalse": 20 }].

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "prior": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "evidence": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "object",
        "required": [
          "likelihoodIfTrue",
          "likelihoodIfFalse"
        ],
        "properties": {
          "label": {
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Optional short caption for this evidence. Defaults to \"Evidence 1\", \"Evidence 2\", …"
          },
          "likelihoodIfTrue": {
            "type": [
              "number",
              "string"
            ],
            "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is true), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\")."
          },
          "likelihoodIfFalse": {
            "type": [
              "number",
              "string"
            ],
            "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is false), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\")."
          }
        }
      },
      "minItems": 1,
      "description": "One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ \"likelihoodIfTrue\": 80, \"likelihoodIfFalse\": 20 }]."
    }
  }
}

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
marketPrice	number \| string	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	number \| string	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
value	number \| string	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
format	any	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
    },
    "format": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."
    }
  }
}

edge_alerts

Use for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
feed	string	Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.
limit	number \| string \| null	Max alerts to return (default 25). Values above 100 are clamped to 100.
since	string	ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.
min_tier	any	Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). One of: SPECULATIVE · MODERATE · STRONG.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "feed": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all."
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ],
      "description": "Max alerts to return (default 25). Values above 100 are clamped to 100."
    },
    "since": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it."
    },
    "min_tier": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "SPECULATIVE",
            "MODERATE",
            "STRONG"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). One of: SPECULATIVE · MODERATE · STRONG."
    }
  }
}

kelly_size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
bankroll	number \| string	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
fraction	any	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
marketPrice*	number \| string	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
winProbability*	number \| string	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "bankroll": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\")."
    },
    "fraction": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth."
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    },
    "winProbability": {
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ],
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
    }
  }
}

weather_board

Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
day	any	today · tomorrow · all (default).
city	string	City name or series ("nyc", "KXHIGHTBOS"). Omit for all.

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "day": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "enum": [
            "today",
            "tomorrow",
            "all"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        }
      ],
      "description": "today · tomorrow · all (default)."
    },
    "city": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40,
      "description": "City name or series (\"nyc\", \"KXHIGHTBOS\"). Omit for all."
    }
  }
}