Russia–NATO risk ladder

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Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

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get_changelog Read-only

Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

langstring

Language of text fields (default en)

typestring

limitinteger

Tools (8)

get_changelog

Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)
type	string
limit	integer

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    },
    "type": {
      "enum": [
        "data",
        "model",
        "ui",
        "fix"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 1
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_forecast_history

Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
to	string	YYYY-MM-DD
from	string	YYYY-MM-DD
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)
series	string

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "to": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "YYYY-MM-DD"
    },
    "from": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "YYYY-MM-DD"
    },
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    },
    "series": {
      "enum": [
        "attack",
        "territory"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_intelligence_assessments

Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)
limit	integer
country	string	ISO code: EE LV LT PL FI SE NO DK NL GB DE US
dimension	string

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 1
    },
    "country": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "ISO code: EE LV LT PL FI SE NO DK NL GB DE US"
    },
    "dimension": {
      "enum": [
        "military",
        "hybrid"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_methodology

Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_other_forecasts

Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_overview

Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_risk_ladder

Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
date	string	YYYY-MM-DD; default = data date (as_of)
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)
scenario	any	optimistic \| baseline \| pessimistic, or a number from -1 to 1
hybrid_pct	number	What-if: annual probability of a destructive hybrid attack, %
wide_share_pct	number	What-if: share of regional wars escalating into a wider war, %
scenario_factor	number	What-if: factor F by which intensity changes per year in the extreme scenarios
regional_share_pct	number	What-if: share of attacks escalating into a regional war, %

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "date": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "YYYY-MM-DD; default = data date (as_of)"
    },
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    },
    "scenario": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "enum": [
            "optimistic",
            "baseline",
            "pessimistic"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "number",
          "maximum": 1,
          "minimum": -1
        }
      ],
      "description": "optimistic | baseline | pessimistic, or a number from -1 to 1"
    },
    "hybrid_pct": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 99,
      "minimum": 1,
      "description": "What-if: annual probability of a destructive hybrid attack, %"
    },
    "wide_share_pct": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 0,
      "description": "What-if: share of regional wars escalating into a wider war, %"
    },
    "scenario_factor": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 10,
      "minimum": 1,
      "description": "What-if: factor F by which intensity changes per year in the extreme scenarios"
    },
    "regional_share_pct": {
      "type": "number",
      "maximum": 100,
      "minimum": 0,
      "description": "What-if: share of attacks escalating into a regional war, %"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}

get_sources

The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.

read-only

Argument	Type	Description
lang	string	Language of text fields (default en)
type	string
limit	integer
query	string
country	string

Input schema (JSON)

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lang": {
      "enum": [
        "en",
        "ru",
        "de",
        "es",
        "fr"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
    },
    "type": {
      "enum": [
        "intel",
        "research",
        "method",
        "forecast"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 60,
      "minimum": 1
    },
    "query": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "country": {
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": false
}