Commit / defer / abstain over a conformal coverage region - not a probability of being right.
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projection of a committed Shōgen-verified witness (Binance BTCUSDT, self-notarized); the verifier is NOT executed at call time.
This tool takes no arguments.
This tool isn't marked read-only, so it may change something on the server or in an account you connected.
projection of a committed Shōgen-verified witness (Binance BTCUSDT, self-notarized); the verifier is NOT executed at call time.
No arguments.
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {},
"additionalProperties": false
}split-conformal quantile at miscoverage α over caller-supplied nonconformity scores. MONARK does not see, store, or verify the caller's data or model, and does not validate that the supplied numbers are nonconformity scores of any model. Marginal 1−α coverage holds ONLY for future points exchangeable with the supplied scores; non-exchangeable data (e.g. distribution-shifted or time-ordered) voids it. Never a probability of being right.
| Argument | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| nMin* | integer | Minimum calibration count (>= 1); n < nMin fails closed to under_calib. |
| alpha* | number | Target miscoverage in the open interval (0,1). |
| scores* | array | Caller-supplied nonconformity scores (BYO: the caller owns the score function; MONARK stays agnostic). |
{
"type": "object",
"required": [
"scores",
"alpha",
"nMin"
],
"properties": {
"nMin": {
"type": "integer",
"description": "Minimum calibration count (>= 1); n < nMin fails closed to under_calib."
},
"alpha": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Target miscoverage in the open interval (0,1)."
},
"scores": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"description": "Caller-supplied nonconformity scores (BYO: the caller owns the score function; MONARK stays agnostic)."
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}Estimated liquidable amount from the real UKEMI cascade primitives (imported, never re-implemented): an Eisenberg-Noe clearing of the interbank system (L, e) with alpha=beta=1 yields the largest clearing vector L*; each node is then read as a leveraged position — collateral is its cleared balance-sheet value (external assets plus interbank receipts under L*), debt is its nominal obligations, liquidation threshold K=1 — and liquidableAmount sums the debts of the nodes whose cleared value, once shocked by the caller-carried 24h fraction, no longer covers their obligations. Shocking the whole cleared value is a v0 simplification; no source supports shocking interbank receivables. yhat is that liquidable amount: a monetary quantity in the reference asset, a single point that HIKAE conformalizes downstream — no guarantee, no score. Downstream, no cascade calibration is committed; the gate abstains (under_calib) on this class. This cascade tool is v0, replaced at U-5.
| Argument | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| L* | array | Nominal interbank liabilities matrix L[i][j] = what node i owes node j. Square, entries >= 0, zero diagonal. |
| e* | array | External assets (liquidation value) per node at the clearing date. One value per node. |
| shock* | number | 24h collateral price shock fraction in [0,1] — a declared fixture parameter, not a dynamics model. |
| producedAt* | string | Caller-carried RFC3339 instant, injected for hash stability (D4); the tool reads no clock. |
{
"type": "object",
"required": [
"L",
"e",
"shock",
"producedAt"
],
"properties": {
"L": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 64
},
"maxItems": 64,
"description": "Nominal interbank liabilities matrix L[i][j] = what node i owes node j. Square, entries >= 0, zero diagonal."
},
"e": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 64,
"description": "External assets (liquidation value) per node at the clearing date. One value per node."
},
"shock": {
"type": "number",
"description": "24h collateral price shock fraction in [0,1] — a declared fixture parameter, not a dynamics model."
},
"producedAt": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Caller-carried RFC3339 instant, injected for hash stability (D4); the tool reads no clock."
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}Coverage-gated decision from the real HIKAE L3 policy (commit/defer/abstain) over a caller-carried authorization budget B_t. Dispatches on task_class. The class 'btc-dir-15m' is retired and answers a named refusal. For 'cascade-liquidable-24h' no cascade calibration is committed; the gate abstains (under_calib) on this class. For 'stable-run-velocity-24h' (Narabi: a redemption-flow velocity forecast) the gate holds a committed stable-run velocity calibration for the USDe synthetic-dollar-whitelisted-redeem population (key narabi:persistence-v2@eip155:1/erc20:0x4c9edd5852cd905f086c759e8383e09bff1e68b3) over calm-window redemption flow; coverage is stated under the split-conformal bound of Barber, Candes, Ramdas and Tibshirani 2023 (Thm 2, unit weights): at least 1 − α minus the average total-variation gap between calibration windows and the next one; that gap is not estimated here and the calibration is measured non-stationary across half-years, so 1 − α is the coverage only if that gap is zero (exchangeability), which is not assumed here; no coverage is measured; on that key it requires alpha = 0.1, nMin = 50; for any other population, no stable-run velocity calibration is committed for this population; the gate abstains (under_calib). For 'liquidation-eligible-coverage' (Ukemi: a per-account liquidable-amount class, class A only) the served region is a conformal upper bound on the liquidable amount for the calibrated class; the lower edge is 0 by construction, not a calibrated bound; abstains (under_calib) outside it; this class requires alpha = 0.01, nMin = 100; calibrated on one recorded episode; no coverage is claimed on any other event; the H-3 exchangeability check is a report, a YES licenses nothing more; the bound holds only if yhat was produced by the frozen close-factor rule on a mono-collateral WETH account at the first crossing, which the gate does not check. The 32 kata classes `{btc,eth,bnb,sol}-{dir,range,mae-down,mae-up}-{1h,4h}` are served from their policy tables, which hold no committed calibration row: every well-formed kata call abstains with no region (under_calib, or non_evaluable on a dir lean of exactly 0), and no kata class has an attestation subject. A kata call carries a `predictor_id` of the form `kata:<kataId>@<venue>/<SYMBOL>/<h>` (no bucket, <h> the class horizon), a `features_digest`, alpha = 0.45, nMin = 6 on dir classes and alpha = 0.01, nMin = 299 on the others, tau at most 1 on dir classes, and a `produced_at` on the class horizon grid, received at most 300 s after it; the full request rules are in section 9 of the contract 1.1.0 specification. When the caller instead supplies a `calibration` (its own nonconformity scores plus a `mode`: `interval` ⇒ region [yhat - q̂, yhat + q̂], or `set` ⇒ a conformal set over caller `candidates`), the gate conformalizes against THOSE caller-supplied scores (BYO): split-conformal quantile at miscoverage α over caller-supplied nonconformity scores. MONARK does not see, store, or verify the caller's data or model, and does not validate that the supplied numbers are nonconformity scores of any model. Marginal 1−α coverage holds ONLY for future points exchangeable with the supplied scores; non-exchangeable data (e.g. distribution-shifted or time-ordered) voids it. Never a probability of being right. A caller-carried `attested` price must declare a subject consistent with the committed task class (exact committed-URL membership; BYO classes do not accept `attested` in P1); the attestation is carried by the caller and is not re-verified at call time (the verifier is not executed here); `attest` only projects the committed witness — verify a caller-carried attestation offline with the Shōgen verifier; no temporal binding in P1. No served class has a committed attestation subject (the retired 'btc-dir-15m' held the only one), so any `attested` is refused. The gate only emits a decision; it never calls the named tool.
| Argument | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| params* | object | |
| attested | object | |
| prediction* | object |
{
"type": "object",
"required": [
"prediction",
"params"
],
"properties": {
"params": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"remainingBudget",
"bFloor",
"tau",
"tauInterval",
"alpha",
"nMin",
"intent",
"tool",
"clockOpen"
],
"properties": {
"tau": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Set-size threshold for the `set` path (>= 0)."
},
"nMin": {
"type": "integer",
"description": "Minimum calibration count (>= 1)."
},
"tool": {
"type": "string",
"description": "The NAMED gated tool (echoed, never invoked — D0/D1)."
},
"alpha": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Target miscoverage in (0,1)."
},
"bFloor": {
"type": "number",
"description": "B_floor threshold (>= 0)."
},
"intent": {
"type": [
"string",
"number",
"null"
],
"description": "The intent tested against the region."
},
"clockOpen": {
"type": "boolean",
"description": "Whether the coverage window is still open (caller-owned)."
},
"calibration": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"scores",
"mode"
],
"properties": {
"mode": {
"enum": [
"interval",
"set"
],
"type": "string",
"description": "`interval` ⇒ region [yhat - q̂, yhat + q̂]; `set` ⇒ conformal set over `candidates`."
},
"scores": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"description": "Caller-supplied nonconformity scores (interval mode requires all >= 0)."
},
"candidates": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"label",
"score"
],
"properties": {
"label": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Candidate label (printable ASCII, unique, no `|`)."
},
"score": {
"type": "number",
"description": "The candidate's nonconformity score."
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"description": "Set-mode candidate labels with their nonconformity scores (required and non-empty when mode = set)."
}
},
"description": "OPTIONAL BYO calibration (ADR-M007 D7): caller-supplied nonconformity scores + region mode. Present ⇒ the gate conformalizes on the caller's model, not a committed class.",
"additionalProperties": false
},
"tauInterval": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Width threshold for the `interval` path (>= 0)."
},
"remainingBudget": {
"type": "number",
"description": "B_t — remaining authorization capacity (caller-owned, D6)."
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"attested": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"schema_version",
"subject",
"attestor",
"residual",
"transport",
"utterance",
"observed_at",
"octets_recalcules",
"verifier_revision"
],
"properties": {
"subject": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"attestor": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"identity",
"key"
],
"properties": {
"key": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^([0-9a-f]{2})+$"
},
"identity": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"minItems": 1,
"uniqueItems": true
},
"residual": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"minItems": 1,
"uniqueItems": true
},
"transport": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"utterance": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"hash"
],
"properties": {
"hash": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"
},
"bytes": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^([0-9a-f]{2})*$"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"observed_at": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"clock",
"instant"
],
"properties": {
"clock": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"instant": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"schema_version": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^\\d+\\.\\d+\\.\\d+$"
},
"sens_emis_digest": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"
},
"octets_recalcules": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"verifier_revision": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"prediction": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"schema_version",
"task_class",
"yhat",
"predictor_id",
"produced_at"
],
"properties": {
"yhat": {
"type": [
"string",
"number"
]
},
"task_class": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"produced_at": {
"type": "string",
"format": "date-time"
},
"predictor_id": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[ -~]+$",
"minLength": 1
},
"schema_version": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^\\d+\\.\\d+\\.\\d+$"
},
"features_digest": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}